The definition of volatility is the rate at which the price of a security or asset fluctuates over time. Volatility can be positive and negative, depending on how much the price changes compared to its historical performance. A high-volatility security is one whose prices tend to change dramatically up and down; in contrast, a valuable
book with low volatility tends to remain relatively close to its historical average price.
Volatility is often used to measure risk, as high volatility can mean greater potential for loss. Investors may seek to limit their exposure to volatile securities or invest in strategies designed to hedge against the risks associated with volatility. Generally speaking, stocks are more volatile than bonds and other fixed income investments.
Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a security or market index. In most cases, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. Volatility is often measured by either the standard deviation or the dispersion between returns on the same security or market index.
In securities markets, volatility is often associated with large swings in both directions. For example, when the stock market rises and falls by more than one percent over an extended period, this is called a “volatile” market. The volatility of an asset is a key factor in option pricing contracts.
Volatility often refers to the uncertainty or risk associated with the magnitude of changes in the value of a security. Higher volatility means that the value of the security can be spread over a wider range of values. This means that the price of securities can change dramatically over a short period in any direction. Lower volatility means that the value of the security does not fluctuate dramatically and tends to be more stable.
One way to measure the variation of an asset is to quantify the asset’s daily return (percentage daily movement). Historical volatility is based on historical prices and represents
the degree of variability of investment returns. This number is unitless and is expressed as a percentage.
While volatility captures the dispersion of returns around the mean of an asset as a whole, volatility is a measure of that dispersion bounded by a specific period. In this way we can report daily, weekly, monthly or annual volatility. It is useful to think of volatility as an annual standard deviation.
It is important to note that volatility does not measure the return of an asset, but rather the fluctuations of that return. Therefore, higher absolute return levels do not necessarily correspond to higher volatilities. Volatility is a relative measure and can be used to compare different assets against each other.
Implied volatility (IV) or predicted volatility is one of the most important indicators for options traders. As the name suggests, this allows them to decide how volatile the market will be going forward. This concept also gives traders a way to calculate probability. One important point is that it has to be seen as something other than science, so you can’t predict how the market will move.
Unlike historical volatility, implied volatility comes from the option price and represents future volatility expectations. Because presumably marketers cannot use past performance to indicate future performance. Instead, they should evaluate the potential of the option in the market.
Also called statistical volatility, historical volatility (HV) measures fluctuations in the underlying securities by measuring price changes over predetermined periods. This is a less common indicator than implied volatility because it is not forward-looking. When there is an increase in historical volatility, the price of
securities will also move more than normal. There is an expectation that something will change or has changed at this point. If historical instability declines, on the other hand, it means that any uncertainty is eliminated, so things go back to the way they were. This calculation can be based on intraday changes, but often measures movements based on the move from one closing price to another. Historical volatility can be measured in increments ranging from 10 to 180 trading days depending on the planned duration of the options trade.